Estimating the Long-Term Potential of the Gig Economy in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach toward Indonesia Emas 2045
Keywords:
Gig Economy Indonesia Emas 2045 Labor Absorption Public PolicyAbstract
The gig economy in Indonesia has expanded rapidly, driven by the growth of digital platforms, increasing technological adoption, and a rising preference for flexible work. This expansion is expected to play an important role in supporting the nation’s economic transformation toward the Indonesia Emas 2045 agenda. However, the long-term contribution of the gig economy to Indonesia’s economic structure remains insufficiently assessed. This study analyzes its potential long-term impact using a system dynamics approach. Due to limited official data, the model is developed through a systematic literature review (SLR) from up to related 15 articles. The system dynamics framework captures interactions among key variables, including gig labor absorption, income from gig economy, digital economy platform, and the MSMEs . Policy simulations were conducted with policy scenarios, include: (1) enhancement of digital infrastructure, and (2) expansion of social protection mechanisms. The results indicate that gig economy consistently contributes to national economic performance. Overall, under the baseline simulation from 2025 to 2045, labor absorption increases up to 28,66 percent, and income generated within the gig economy grows by 27,617.59 percent. However, this potential is fully realized only when supported by strong and targeted government intervention. Under the policy scenario, labor absorption rises by 85,69 percent, and the income rises by 81.855,28 percent over the same period. Overall, this study offers an empirical basis for formulating long-term policies to optimize the role of the gig economy in creating employment, strengthening the national income, and also supporting sustainable economic development toward Indonesia Emas 2045.
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